I really hope that the Bush push on Bremer to transition to local government by June '04 isn't so election-motivated as to put the entire effort at risk.
But I'm as skeptical as the conservatives;
Speeding Transfer Of Power in Iraq Carries Big Risks;
Just a few weeks ago, the top American occupation official in Iraq cautioned against transferring sovereignty back to Iraqis too quickly. "Shortcutting the process would be dangerous," warned Ambassador L. Paul Bremer.
The U.S. is now ready to run that risk.
After weeks of bloody attacks on American and allied troops in Iraq, President Bush has decided that the best hope for stabilizing the country and reducing the U.S. presence there is to quickly hand over political and military power to the Iraqis.
But there are serious questions about whether the institutions the U.S. is racing to put into place under so-called Iraqification will be up to the job -- and whether the administration's sudden eagerness to move on might undercut the process.
Under the new agreement, finalized with the Iraqi Governing Council over the weekend, Washington would end its formal occupation by the end of June: dissolving the U.S. hand-picked Council and transferring sovereignty and political control to an interim Iraqi government. By then, the U.S. hopes, some 200,000 new Iraqi police, border guards, army and counter-insurgency forces would begin to shoulder more of the military burden.
U.S. troops would remain a significant presence backing the new government. But by next spring the Pentagon is planning to bring home 30,000 of the 130,000 troops now serving in Iraq, with hopes of more cuts in the following months if Iraqification proves a success.
Bush said over the weekend that we won't be in Iraq "for years".
But there's now way a transition to 'democracy', as touted now by Bush, can happen in less than many years.
We're going to spend $87 billion, then tens of billions more for years after that. There's no way in my mind that our troop levels will decline much under 100,000 for years to come.
No science to those numbers, just my sense of things.
And I'm sure the Bushies know all this, too.
Bush lied to get us to war, and is misadrepresenterating now to shore up his re-election hopes. As the Journal says,
The political advantages to Mr. Bush of Iraqification are obvious: The clear outlines of an exit strategy would be in place before next year's presidential election, but not so close to November to appear unseemly.