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November 04, 2003
Khodorkovsky
Posted by jbholston at 10:18 PM

Both Business Week and the NY Times commented in recent days on L'Affaire Khodor. Business Week's main article is sympathetic to Putin, although their editorial (interestingly) is not.

BW:

Khodorkovsky is being punished because he broke the pact that Putin struck with the oligarchs in 2000 soon after he came to power: If the oligarchs steered clear of politics, Putin would allow them to keep the lucrative assets they amassed during the chaotic rule of Boris Yeltsin.

...But before the prosecution of Yukos even started, the government had trouble getting its laws through parliament -- particularly laws that would have raised taxes for oil companies. "It was Khodorkovsky blocking tax proposals in the Duma relating to the oil business that was the final straw," says Christopher Granville, chief strategist at United Financial Group, a Russian investment bank. That, in turn, reflects a more fundamental problem: the excessive wealth and influence of the oligarchs. "This isn't some paranoid KGB fantasy," he says.

The Times piece points out the tight connections Khodorkovsky developed among the power elite in Washington, particular Republicans in power and in business (but not only Republicans);

Mr. Khodorkovsky's steady efforts to win access to other influential Americans have paid off. Last July, he met with Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham to discuss America's oil policy. Former President George H. W. Bush traveled to Russia in September and spoke at a dinner attended by Mr. Khodorkovsky.

...The Carlyle Group, an investment bank that retained the elder Mr. Bush as an adviser until a few weeks ago, has a close business relationship with Mr. Khodorkovsky. Although Mr. Bush was in Russia as a Carlyle representative, the bank said, his visit had nothing to do with oil deals and he did not meet privately with Mr. Khodorkovsky.

Last summer, too, Mr. Khodorkovsky traveled to a meeting of business leaders in Sun Valley, Idaho, as a guest of a former senator, Bill Bradley, a New Jersey Democrat. Mr. Bradley also advises the Open Russia Foundation, a Russian philanthropy based in Britain that is bankrolled by Mr. Khodorkovsky.

Henry Kissinger, secretary of state in the Nixon administration, is on the foundation's board, a position he said he accepted at the invitation of Lord Rothschild, another board member. Mr. Kissinger said he had only met Mr. Khodorkovsky twice, briefly and in a group.

Combined, the two stories reaffirm that this is a late-stage move in a game orchestrated years ago.

Putin agreed to a Faustian bargain with the oligarchs, whereby they could keep the billions they stole during the broken privatization process as long as they steered clear of politics.

That bargain was, I believe, designed not so much to protect Putin as to protect Russia. Putin knew that once the Oligarchs could also buy the government, Russia would devolved to an entirely undemocratic and despotic third world country.

All of which is not a very deeply buried, or distant story. So why have the media promoted the Yukos' line alone?

The articles make clear that this partly because the media have been co-opted by the powerful and wealthy DC-based entities whose allegiance to Yukos etc has been bought over many years.

Once a young Washington Post reporter gets a call from Jim Baker (or whomever) at Carlisle, suggesting that the real story in Russia is the collapse of free markets as Putin chases Oligarchs ... they're not likely to spend much time investigating the roots of this affair.

Particularly when the think tanks -- and Congressional insiders -- on whom they often rely for information are also Khodor clients;

Through Yukos, however, Mr. Khodorkovsky has given handsome sums to American organizations, including a $1 million donation to the Library of Congress and a $500,000 pledge to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank that is home to some of the most often quoted analysts of Russian affairs.

Carnegie notes that Yukos's contributions amount to less than 3 percent of its annual budget. Anders Aslund, a Russia expert at the foundation who has criticized the Russian government in its standoff with Mr. Khodorkovsky, said Yukos's backing is disclosed on the Carnegie Web site. He added that while the donations are significant, they do not affect his assessment of Mr. Khodorkovsky.

The American Enterprise Institute, another Washington think tank that has weighed in on Mr. Khodorkovsky's behalf, declined to address financial dealings with Yukos, citing the institute's policy not to comment on such matters.

Fiona Hill, a Russia analyst at the Brookings Institution, said many think tanks, needing money for Russia studies programs, had courted Mr. Khodorkovsky zealously. She said that Brookings, however, decided not to accept his donations.

"The think tanks were all joking about who wanted to take money to fund the Mikhail Khodorkovsky chair of good corporate governance," Ms. Hill said. "There were still questions about his business dealings and whether he really made the transition from being a robber baron and now wore a white hat."

Others in Washington said that influence is not so easily purchased and that Mr. Khodorkovsky had traction in the United States because of an authentic commitment to corporate and political change in Russia.

"What distinguishes Khodorkovsky is that he recognized that the rule of law was necessary to legitimize his company," said Steve Biegun, who is a national security specialist on the staff of Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Republican leader, and has met several times with Mr. Khodorkovsky.

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Some Colorado Scrivening
Posted by jbholston at 08:52 AM

I'm doing most of my writing on the Rocky Mountain region over at the Rocky Mountain Progressive Network, which I launched with some good liberal business friends about five weeks ago now.

It's gone very well; we've had over 17,000 unique visitors (big for an unmarketed start-up in Colorado) and more importantly have affected the debate on a host of issues significantly. And, the radical right hates us. One far-right-wing Colorado Representative called my writing 'Better than Lenin's'.

One of my favorite pieces is this one which talks about the contrast between Denver's new mayor's effort to remake the city as a new Bohemia -- and the radical right which controls the state's success in re-labeling Colorado the Hate State;

It's not just the media's hyper-focus on the Bryant case. And it's not just white supremacist extremists who are finding a Rocky Mountain home here.

The fact is that the state's right-wing leadership's success promoting divisive positions of all sorts (usually drafted by and at the behest of Beltway extremists) has sent a loud and clear signal to the world that Colorado is open for hate business.

Again.

Some have been around long enough to remember the Amendment 2 campaign in Colorado a decade ago. That effort to exorcise all but heterosexuals from the State went down in flames, but severely burned the Colorado economy along the way.

Colorado became known as 'the hate state' in media across the country. Conference business declined by some $80 million. Major corporations refused to relocate to Denver based on the campaign. It took years for the state to lose the 'hate' moniker.

Hope you find things of interest there, and interested in your thoughts, as always.

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Clueless in Iraq
Posted by jbholston at 08:07 AM

The day after 16 American servicemen died when their helicopter was shot out of the sky near Fallujah, a group of American soldiers tossed handfuls of candy from their Humvees to the Iraqi children who lined the road.

"Don't touch it, don't touch it!" the children squealed. "It's poison from the Americans. It will kill you."

The Humvees rumbled past, and the candy stayed in the dirt.

It's Fallujah, not elsewhere, but that just shows we underestimated the tribal/regional risks.

I'm not a big Rumsfeld basher -- while I suspect he's a jerk as a manager, I've long felt that a Republican administration will be more able to right-size the military than others, and Rumsfeld has seemed incessant about that.

But occupation is not attack, and our military seems to continue to be dangerously clueless in at least parts of Iraq...

As Krugman says today:

But whether or not you think troop losses are important, there's growing evidence that our Iraq strategy is unsustainable. The immediate issue is manpower. Some politicians are calling for a bigger force in Iraq — but even our current force levels can't be maintained.

In September the Congressional Budget Office analyzed how many U.S. soldiers could be kept in Iraq without extending tours beyond one year. The conclusion was that force levels would have to start dropping rapidly about five months from now, and that the forces in Iraq and Kuwait would eventually have to shrink by almost two-thirds. As the report explains, the Pentagon can use various expedients to maintain a larger force in Iraq, but all of these expedients would threaten to undermine our military readiness.

...Just as the federal government is in no immediate danger of running out of money, our forces in Iraq are in no danger of outright defeat. But in both cases, current policies appear to be unsustainable: we can't go on like this indefinitely. And things that can't go on forever, don't.


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Republican Thought Police
Posted by jbholston at 07:01 AM

What's most amazing about this story is that the GOP could care less that it's censorship is loud and public:

Sunday night, CBS executives attending the network's 75th-anniversary celebration in New York laughed out loud as Dick and Tommy Smothers recounted how CBS had caved in to complaints from conservatives and scrubbed their politically charged '70s variety show. Yesterday morning, some of those same CBS execs were working on how best to scrub their upcoming biopic on Ronald and Nancy Reagan after receiving a letter of complaint about it from the Republican National Committee.

By yesterday afternoon, the debate was no longer whether the four-hour miniseries, which was scheduled to air over two nights, Nov. 16 and 18, would actually be broadcast on CBS. The debate was whether CBS parent Viacom could cut its losses by airing the miniseries on its cable network Showtime, or whether it would be better never to air it at all.

CBS executives declined to comment yesterday; producers Craig Zadan and Neil Meron did not return calls.

On Friday, CBS President and CEO Leslie Moonves received a letter from RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie expressing alarm over the Reagan project.

Though no one at the RNC had seen "The Reagans," the letter insisted that either a panel of Reagan pals and historians screen the project before broadcast for "historical accuracy" or the network run a disclaimer crawl at the bottom of the screen every 10 minutes during the movie, advising viewers that "the program is a fictional portrayal of the Reagans and the Reagan Presidency, and they should not consider it to be historically accurate. . . .

...Some reporters were surprised at the turn of events. "If Hitler had more friends, CBS wouldn't have aired [its Hitler miniseries] either," Philadelphia Daily News TV critic Ellen Gray grumbled to The TV Column.

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