We keep hearing from all sides of the Iraq debate that the U.S. 'can't afford to fail.'
I have two problems with that argument:
1. We've already failed. We've lost the goodwill of the Arab muslim world, Iraq has no chance to become a 'beacon of democracy' for the Middle East, and support at home is collapsing fast.
2. Why the heck can't we fail? Isn't that quintessentially American? We tried, we failed, we learned. And who, exactly, will be hurt by an earlier admission of this reality?
Consider the various constituencies;
1. Our own military. They will be gun-shy for another generation. But they will be so no matter how many more of them we lose or injure.
And how many have already lost the faith, due to Abu Ghraib and Fallujah?
Rumsfeld says today he didn't know about the raid on Chalabi. Powell is running for cover as fast as he can.
Our military has already been effectively abandoned by this administration.
2. The Arab Muslim world. What faith will we lose by withdrawal? It does depend on how we withdraw. But we haven't a clue as to how Iraq should be governed to avoid chaos, and I believe the Arab world knows this.
Will they blame us for cutting and running? Sure, but that's the outcome regardless.
And, the Arab world has a history of reviving the reputations of failed leaders and countries.
Look at Saddam.
3. Our allies. What allies?
4. Israel. Not clear. They have to be happier that Saddam is gone. I doubt theyhave illusions that we could ever have prevented a failed state as the outcome.
5. The American people. They're already losing it. It won't come back.
So what to do?
1. Press the UN and International community with all possible force, to join the next 24 months' peacekeeping effort in large numbers. Bush I did this; Clinton did it over Somalia.
2. Set a firm date by which we're out -- or down to (say) the same number of troops we have in Bosnia. Don't waver, regardless.
3. Follow through with turnover of power, elections, etc.
Bush misled us into the war on false pretenses. We've subsequently screwed it up. In the process, we've squandered 9/11 -- the most international goodwill this country has ever had. We've created a great diaspora of enemies.
Time to survive by moving on.
And, just read this from Kucinich, who thinks we can bring our troops home in 90 days......:
The U.S. military presence in Iraq is counterproductive. If we stay the course, it will damage America's security and lead to a longer war, more troop losses and civilian casualties, hundreds of billions of tax dollars wasted and, inevitably, a draft.
The U.S. invasion was based on lies: Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11 or with al-Qaeda's role in it. Iraq didn't have the intention or capability of attacking America. It did not try to get uranium from Niger. It had no weapons of mass destruction. It was wrong to go in. It is wrong to stay in.
This is the time for a peace plan for Iraq and an exit strategy for the U.S. The world community will not make a commitment absent a change of direction in U.S. policy.
